Your market briefing

European traders will be greeted with a rather bare economic calendar when they get to their desks today, and I reckon that might suit some market players just fine considering what is on the agenda later this week. In terms of data releases, we only have French consumer confidence for October and the ECB's survey on euro area lending for September.

Asia firms into Tokyo lunch: Japan and Korea stocks rise, AUD and NZD gain after Nasdaq lead Ethereum Foundation “dump” is a $6.4m treasury sale, not a crisis South Korea Q3 GDP grows 1.0%, beating forecasts as AI chip boom lifts exports China September industrial profits jump 14.4% y/y, rebounding from 4.2% in August Japan services PPI picks up to 3.7% as August revised low...

The rebound offers a modest positive surprise for Chinese assets at a time when sentiment is fragile, with onshore equities in a bear market and Morgan Stanley warning of further downside in offshore shares. Industrial and materials stocks are the most direct beneficiaries, and the data may slightly ease concerns about a sharp earnings slowdown.

An in-line print is unlikely to move the yen much on its own, but it removes one possible dovish surprise before Friday’s decision and keeps the backdrop supportive of December hike pricing.

This is a warning shot rather than an escalation, so the immediate market impact is likely confined to aerospace names, with Airbus and Boeing shares the most exposed to any shift in trade rhetoric.

The Australian dollar and front-end yields are set up for a binary reaction. With implied hike odds already above half, a trimmed mean at or above 1.0% would push November pricing closer to fully priced and support the currency.

The analysis adds a structural layer to an inflation backdrop already strained by energy, which argues against easing and supports the case for central banks on tightening paths, including the Fed and the Bank of Japan, to keep a hawkish bias into 2027.

Dollar rebounds as euro slips ahead of key central bank decisions

Canadian dollar steadies after seven-day rally ahead of rate decisions

The Canadian dollar had some deal optimism built in after the weekend remarks from Washington, so Carney’s comments and the Semafor report remove part of that support and leave USD/CAD sensitive to further trade headlines.

At the close: US stock markets climb Monday as Anthropic files for IPO US and Canada working on deal to ease tariffs on Canadian steel and auto imports The once Magnificent 7 are not so magnificent, but they still are large cap technology movers Saudi Arabia offers cash to Houthis to stop attacks - report The cost of intelligence is collapsing US Treasury sells $69 billion o...

The services PPI is rarely a big mover for the yen on its own, but a reading at or above 3.7% would reinforce December hike pricing and lend modest support to the yen and short-dated JGB yields into Friday.