Your market briefing

I reckon that US president Trump might be in for a rude awakening after tomorrow. Or perhaps he is already aware of his current predicament, although I wouldn't put it past him to refuse to accept that reality.

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The beat offers some relief after Saturday’s weak official survey and may give modest support to China-sensitive assets such as the yuan, the Australian dollar and industrial metals at the start of the week. The price detail is less encouraging.

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The survey keeps Japan’s factory sector in solid expansion while showing price pressure starting to build again, which supports the case for continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan.

The benefit itself is modest in scale, but it sits alongside a proposed two-year cut to the consumption tax on food, which keeps Japan’s fiscal trajectory in focus for bond investors.

The change doesn’t alter exchange hours, but it does shift when global liquidity overlaps. Asia-Pacific desks now see US cash trading start and finish an hour later on their clocks, which narrows the gap between the Wall Street close and the Asian open and changes when US-driven moves first reach Asian markets.

The delay adds to a run of setbacks that point to rising execution risk across Australia’s (and global) data centre sector, where permitting, energy supply and community opposition are all lengthening timelines.

The survey has an uncomfortable mix for policymakers: demand and output are contracting, but input costs and selling prices are rising faster.

Taken at face value, a thaw in US-Canada trade relations would support the Canadian dollar and trade-exposed Canadian equities, which have carried the cost of months of tit-for-tat tariffs. Markets are likely to discount the headline until there is text to read, though, because neither side has said what tariffs would change or when.

China’s private-sector manufacturing PMI is due at 01:45 GMT on Monday (20:45 US Eastern on Sunday), with economists expecting factory activity to keep growing in October, though at a slower pace than in September. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, is forecast to ease to 51.6 from 52.1, according to a Reuters poll.

Because the data came out on a Saturday, Monday’s Asian session is the first chance for markets to price the miss. Softer Chinese factory demand is usually a headwind for industrial metals such as copper and iron ore, and for China-sensitive currencies including the yuan and the Australian dollar.