Your market briefing

Ahead of election day tomorrow, Republicans are certainly feeling the pressure in judging by how the latest polls are shaping up. Earlier in the day, we've already looked at what's at stake for US president Trump and financial markets .

Sterling today: Pound gains as dollar slips on Iran diplomacy bets

Eurozone October final manufacturing PMI 52.7 vs 52.4 prelim Prior 52.9 Euro area industry activity softened slightly in October, with the headline PMI estimate touching a two-month low. The output index slumped further to 52.8 from 53.6 in September, dropping to a four-month low.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the final PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The final data is rarely a market mover because markets react more to fresh information like preliminary data.

Germany September retail sales -2.0% vs +0.4% m/m expected Prior +1.3%; revised to +1.2% Germany September retail sales -2.3% y/y Prior -0.4%; revised to -0.3% Ouch. Death, taxes, and Germany economic data disappointing on expectations.

I reckon that US president Trump might be in for a rude awakening after tomorrow. Or perhaps he is already aware of his current predicament, although I wouldn't put it past him to refuse to accept that reality.

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The beat offers some relief after Saturday’s weak official survey and may give modest support to China-sensitive assets such as the yuan, the Australian dollar and industrial metals at the start of the week. The price detail is less encouraging.

Dollar rangebound ahead of US midterms; bitcoin reels from crypto heist

The survey keeps Japan’s factory sector in solid expansion while showing price pressure starting to build again, which supports the case for continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan.

The benefit itself is modest in scale, but it sits alongside a proposed two-year cut to the consumption tax on food, which keeps Japan’s fiscal trajectory in focus for bond investors.

The change doesn’t alter exchange hours, but it does shift when global liquidity overlaps. Asia-Pacific desks now see US cash trading start and finish an hour later on their clocks, which narrows the gap between the Wall Street close and the Asian open and changes when US-driven moves first reach Asian markets.