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Sterling today: Pound firms as dollar slips on midterm, AI jitters

Prior +4.2% HICP +5.6% vs +4.6% y/y expected Prior +4.2% Inflation accelerated sharply in October 2026, but the increase was primarily driven by energy prices, with both regulated and non-regulated energy products recording significant increases.

Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected Prior +0.6% Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +1.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected Prior +1.2% Well, well, well. The euro area economy has managed to pull a rabbit out of the hat, delivering a better-than-expected Q3 GDP reading at first glance.

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The state readings released around the same time: Bavaria September CPI +2.8% vs +3.2% y/y prior Saxony September CPI +2.9% vs +3.3% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia September CPI +2.7% vs +3.3% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg September CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y prior After the acceleration in September, headline inflation is seen cooling back a little in German states.

Prior +0.3% GDP Y/Y +1.2% vs 1.1% expected Prior +1.0% Germany's economy expanded by 0.2% q/q in the third quarter of 2026, according to preliminary data from Destatis, extending the recovery seen in the first half of the year. GDP increased by 1.3% y/y in price-adjusted terms, or 1.2% when adjusted for both prices and calendar effects.

Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q expected Prior +0.7% Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expected Prior +2.6% It is the preliminary report, so there aren't much details to work with here besides the headline figures above.

Spain October preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +4.9% Spain October preliminary HICP +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +5.0% Spanish inflation continues to hover around 5% in October, as the preliminary estimates continue to paint a rather uncomfortable picture for the most part.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get lots of Eurozone data but the main highlights will be the inflation reports for France, Spain and Germany. We have also the Eurozone GDP report but the focus will likely be on inflation, as the ECB signalled yesterday that it's prepared to raise rates in December if the inflation outlook does not improve.

France October preliminary CPI +3.4% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +3.1% France October preliminary HICP +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.4% French inflation is seen accelerating again in October, as the preliminary estimates show headline annual inflation climbing to its highest since December 2023.