Your market briefing

Prior +0.3% GDP Y/Y +1.2% vs 1.1% expected Prior +1.0% Germany's economy expanded by 0.2% q/q in the third quarter of 2026, according to preliminary data from Destatis, extending the recovery seen in the first half of the year. GDP increased by 1.3% y/y in price-adjusted terms, or 1.2% when adjusted for both prices and calendar effects.

Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q expected Prior +0.7% Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expected Prior +2.6% It is the preliminary report, so there aren't much details to work with here besides the headline figures above.

Spain October preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +4.9% Spain October preliminary HICP +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y expected Prior +5.0% Spanish inflation continues to hover around 5% in October, as the preliminary estimates continue to paint a rather uncomfortable picture for the most part.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get lots of Eurozone data but the main highlights will be the inflation reports for France, Spain and Germany. We have also the Eurozone GDP report but the focus will likely be on inflation, as the ECB signalled yesterday that it's prepared to raise rates in December if the inflation outlook does not improve.

France October preliminary CPI +3.4% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +3.1% France October preliminary HICP +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.4% French inflation is seen accelerating again in October, as the preliminary estimates show headline annual inflation climbing to its highest since December 2023.

Germany September import prices +2.1% vs +1.8% m/m expected Prior +1.0% Germany September import prices +10.4% vs +10.3% y/y expected Prior +8.3% Just when Germany thought it had enough economic headaches to deal with, here's another one to add to the pile. This time, the inflation monster is making quite the comeback through the back door.

France Q3 preliminary GDP -0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected Prior 0.0% France Q3 preliminary GDP % vs +0.3% y/y expected Prior +0.5% Ouch. That's a notable miss as French GDP shrinks in Q3 this year.

It looks like Halloween is coming a day early for markets with investors getting quite the fright already as we look to wrap up the trading week. Both stocks and Treasury yields are falling together, with gold also struggling to catch a bid.

BoJ declares underlying inflation at 2% target, lifts FY2027 price forecast as rates held BoJ keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, as expected (Some good news!) Treasuries rally as AI selloff drives flight to safety, 10-year yield at one-month low Amazon and Intel results deepen worries over AI boom costs as tech, chip stocks slide PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for toda...

Lower Treasury yields ease financing costs across the curve, offering some relief to rate-sensitive sectors and to the AI firms whose borrowing has worried investors. That makes the bond rally partly self-correcting for the very stress that triggered it.

Bitcoin, cryptocurrency prices fall after Binance reports security issue

The data give the BoJ evidence on both sides, so the reaction in the yen and Japanese government bonds is likely to be modest ahead of the policy decision and Outlook Report later in the day. Stronger output and upbeat production plans support Japanese industrials and exporters.