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UK budget: Growth forecasts cut as Healey unveils £15 billion fiscal buffer
GBP
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) lowered its near-term growth forecasts but the government still expects to meet its fiscal rules, with £15 billion of headroom at the end of the forecast period.
UK budget: Growth forecasts cut as Healey unveils £15 billion fiscal buffer
What this may mean
Growth data can reshape recession, earnings and policy expectations across currencies and risk assets.
Key points
- Market context: Potentially negative
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
USD
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
USD
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
US Wholesale inventories 0.6% vs 0.5% estimate
USD
Wholesale inventories: +0.6% MoM. Retail inventories: +0.3% MoM.
US Wholesale inventories 0.6% vs 0.5% estimate
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
US Wholesale inventories 0.6% vs 0.5% estimate
USD
Wholesale inventories: +0.6% MoM. Retail inventories: +0.3% MoM.
US Wholesale inventories 0.6% vs 0.5% estimate
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
US September advance goods trade balance -134.9 billion vs -130.2 billion expected
USD
Prior was -132.6 These are the two worst back-to-back months since just before Liberation Day, when goods were flooding into the US to try to front-run Trump's tariffs. Excluding Jan-Mar 2025, it's the worst two-month period ever.
US September advance goods trade balance -134.9 billion vs -130.2 billion expected
What this may mean
Growth data can reshape recession, earnings and policy expectations across currencies and risk assets.
US September advance goods trade balance -134.9 billion vs -130.2 billion expected
USD
Prior was -132.6 These are the two worst back-to-back months since just before Liberation Day, when goods were flooding into the US to try to front-run Trump's tariffs. Excluding Jan-Mar 2025, it's the worst two-month period ever.
US September advance goods trade balance -134.9 billion vs -130.2 billion expected
What this may mean
Growth data can reshape recession, earnings and policy expectations across currencies and risk assets.
Key points
- Market context: Potentially negative
European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom
USDGBPAUDCADNZDCNY
Headlines: Crude oil remains under pressure amid US-Iran deal hopes; setbacks could push prices to new highs Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week Gold rebounds on renewed hopes for US-Iran deal as focus shifts to FOMC decision Wall Street faces a double test as Fed decision and Microsoft, Alphabet earnings loom...
European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom
USDGBPAUDCADNZDCNY
Headlines: Crude oil remains under pressure amid US-Iran deal hopes; setbacks could push prices to new highs Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week Gold rebounds on renewed hopes for US-Iran deal as focus shifts to FOMC decision Wall Street faces a double test as Fed decision and Microsoft, Alphabet earnings loom...
European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
What this may mean
The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
What this may mean
The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance
GBP
UK chancellor Healey has a rather unenviable task at hand today. He is expected to deliver a budget that keeps households happy, businesses afloat, and bond investors calm.
Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance
What this may mean
Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.
Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance
GBP
UK chancellor Healey has a rather unenviable task at hand today. He is expected to deliver a budget that keeps households happy, businesses afloat, and bond investors calm.
Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance
What this may mean
Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
US PPI Final Demand MoM
USD
US PPI Final Demand MoM was +1.3% for 2026-09, compared with +0.5% previously.
Event time Released
US PPI Final Demand MoM
- Actual
- +1.3%
- Forecast
- —
- Previous
- +0.5%
What this may mean
Producer-price pressure can affect the inflation outlook, interest-rate expectations and the U.S. dollar.
Key points
- Market context: higher
US Producer Price Index — 2026-09
USD
USD bias is mildly positive using latest-versus-previous official data. Supportive factors: US PPI Final Demand MoM changed from +0.5% to +1.3%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.
US Producer Price Index — 2026-09
The numbers behind the update
Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.
| Indicator | Actual | Previous | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| US PPI Final Demand MoM | +1.3% | +0.5% | — |
What this may mean
USD may lean stronger initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.
Key points
- Supporting: US PPI Final Demand MoM changed from +0.5% to +1.3%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison.
- Market context: Mildly Positive
US CPI MoM
USD
US CPI MoM was +0.6% for 2026-09, compared with +0.4% previously.
Event time Released
US CPI MoM
- Actual
- +0.6%
- Forecast
- —
- Previous
- +0.4%
What this may mean
U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.
Key points
- Market context: higher
US Core CPI MoM
USD
US Core CPI MoM was +0.3% for 2026-09, compared with +0.3% previously.
Event time Released
US Core CPI MoM
- Actual
- +0.3%
- Forecast
- —
- Previous
- +0.3%
What this may mean
U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.
Key points
- Market context: unchanged
US Consumer Price Index — 2026-09
USD
USD bias is mildly positive using latest-versus-previous official data. Supportive factors: US CPI MoM changed from +0.4% to +0.6%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.
US Consumer Price Index — 2026-09
The numbers behind the update
Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.
| Indicator | Actual | Previous | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI MoM | +0.6% | +0.4% | — |
| US Core CPI MoM | +0.3% | +0.3% | — |
What this may mean
USD may lean stronger initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.
Key points
- Supporting: US CPI MoM changed from +0.4% to +0.6%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison.
- Market context: Mildly Positive
US Nonfarm Payrolls
USD
Nonfarm payrolls changed by +29K for 2026-09, compared with +133K previously.
Event time Released
US Nonfarm Payrolls
- Actual
- +29K
- Forecast
- —
- Previous
- +133K
What this may mean
U.S. labour-market strength can change growth and Federal Reserve expectations across currencies and risk assets.
Key points
- Market context: lower
US Unemployment Rate
USD
US Unemployment Rate was 4.2% for 2026-09, compared with 4.1% previously.
Event time Released
US Unemployment Rate
- Actual
- 4.2%
- Forecast
- —
- Previous
- 4.1%
What this may mean
U.S. labour-market strength can change growth and Federal Reserve expectations across currencies and risk assets.
Key points
- Market context: higher
US Employment Situation — 2026-09
USD
USD bias is mildly negative using latest-versus-previous official data. Conflicting factors: US Nonfarm Payrolls changed from +133K to +29K, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. US Unemployment Rate changed from 4.1% to 4.2%, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.
US Employment Situation — 2026-09
The numbers behind the update
Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.
| Indicator | Actual | Previous | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Nonfarm Payrolls | +29K | +133K | — |
| US Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 4.1% | — |
What this may mean
USD may lean weaker initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.
Key points
- Conflicting: US Nonfarm Payrolls changed from +133K to +29K, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
- Conflicting: US Unemployment Rate changed from 4.1% to 4.2%, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
- Market context: Mildly Negative
US JOLTS Job Openings
USD
Job openings were 7.190M for 2026-08, compared with 7.335M previously.
Event time Released
US JOLTS Job Openings
- Actual
- 7.190M
- Forecast
- —
- Previous
- 7.335M
What this may mean
Job openings provide a timely signal of labour demand and can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Key points
- Market context: lower
US Job Openings and Labor Turnover — 2026-08
USD
USD bias is mildly negative using latest-versus-previous official data. Conflicting factors: US JOLTS Job Openings changed from 7.335M to 7.190M, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.
US Job Openings and Labor Turnover — 2026-08
The numbers behind the update
Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.
| Indicator | Actual | Previous | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| US JOLTS Job Openings | 7.190M | 7.335M | — |
What this may mean
USD may lean weaker initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.
Key points
- Conflicting: US JOLTS Job Openings changed from 7.335M to 7.190M, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
- Market context: Mildly Negative
US CPI MoM
USD
US CPI MoM was +0.4% for 2026-08, compared with +0.1% previously.
Event time Released
US CPI MoM
- Actual
- +0.4%
- Forecast
- —
- Previous
- +0.1%
What this may mean
U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.
Key points
- Market context: higher
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