FORECAST • MARKET CONTEXT

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News briefingLow impact

UK autumn budget preview: Can Healey calm markets and change BOE rate hike bets?

USDGBP

The UK autumn budget is coming up on 28 October, just a week before the BOE's next monetary policy decision . And with inflation concerns still hanging over the economy , the government's fiscal plans could have a say in how interest rate expectations develop over the coming months.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisLow impact

UK autumn budget preview: Can Healey calm markets and change BOE rate hike bets?

USDGBP

The UK autumn budget is coming up on 28 October, just a week before the BOE's next monetary policy decision . And with inflation concerns still hanging over the economy , the government's fiscal plans could have a say in how interest rate expectations develop over the coming months.

Read the detailsClose details

What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Potentially supportive
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

Sterling today: Pound slips as dollar holds firm ahead of Fed decision

USDGBP

Sterling today: Pound slips as dollar holds firm ahead of Fed decision

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisLow impact

Sterling today: Pound slips as dollar holds firm ahead of Fed decision

USDGBP

Sterling today: Pound slips as dollar holds firm ahead of Fed decision

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Germany Ifo business confidence improves in October as expectations surprise higher

EUR

Germany October Ifo business climate index 90.2 vs 90.0 expected Prior 89.9 Germany October Ifo current conditions index 88.8 vs 89.9 expected Prior 89.5 Germany October Ifo expectations index 91.6 vs 90.0 expected Prior 90.4 The breakdownThe survey continues to reaffirm a further improvement in German business sentiment, one that is especially backed by stronger a stronger...

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

Germany Ifo business confidence improves in October as expectations surprise higher

EUR

Germany October Ifo business climate index 90.2 vs 90.0 expected Prior 89.9 Germany October Ifo current conditions index 88.8 vs 89.9 expected Prior 89.5 Germany October Ifo expectations index 91.6 vs 90.0 expected Prior 90.4 The breakdownThe survey continues to reaffirm a further improvement in German business sentiment, one that is especially backed by stronger a stronger...

Read the detailsClose details

What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

What are the main events for today?

USDEUR

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the German IFO survey which is expected to remain unchanged at 89.9. The IFO is generally correlated with the German Composite PMI, so we could get lower than expected figures.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

What are the main events for today?

USDEUR

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the German IFO survey which is expected to remain unchanged at 89.9. The IFO is generally correlated with the German Composite PMI, so we could get lower than expected figures.

Read the detailsClose details

What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

Heads up: European daylight saving time has ended, here's what traders need to know

USDGBP

This is just a quick heads up for traders before we get too far into the new trading week. If you're wondering why European markets seem to be opening a little later than usual today, well it is because we're back to that time of the year again.

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisLow impact

Heads up: European daylight saving time has ended, here's what traders need to know

USDGBP

This is just a quick heads up for traders before we get too far into the new trading week. If you're wondering why European markets seem to be opening a little later than usual today, well it is because we're back to that time of the year again.

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Asia-Pacific market news: Brazil ETF slumps on Lula win

USDEURJPYCADNZDCNY

Brazil ETF tumbles nearly 15% in Tokyo after Lula’s comeback runoff win Saudi Arabia to store crude in Singapore caverns from 2027 as Hormuz disruption bites Goldman’s 79-tonne central bank gold estimate goes mainstream as reserves shift to London BOJ to hold at 1.25%, but Ueda signals further hikes toward neutral PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7162 (vs.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

Asia-Pacific market news: Brazil ETF slumps on Lula win

USDEURJPYCADNZDCNY

Brazil ETF tumbles nearly 15% in Tokyo after Lula’s comeback runoff win Saudi Arabia to store crude in Singapore caverns from 2027 as Hormuz disruption bites Goldman’s 79-tonne central bank gold estimate goes mainstream as reserves shift to London BOJ to hold at 1.25%, but Ueda signals further hikes toward neutral PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7162 (vs.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
Economic calendarMedium impact

US PPI Final Demand MoM

USD

US PPI Final Demand MoM was +1.3% for 2026-09, compared with +0.5% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+1.3%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.5%

What this may mean

Producer-price pressure can affect the inflation outlook, interest-rate expectations and the U.S. dollar.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Market analysisMedium impact

US Producer Price Index — 2026-09

USD

USD bias is mildly positive using latest-versus-previous official data. Supportive factors: US PPI Final Demand MoM changed from +0.5% to +1.3%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US PPI Final Demand MoM+1.3%+0.5%—

What this may mean

USD may lean stronger initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Supporting: US PPI Final Demand MoM changed from +0.5% to +1.3%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Positive
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US CPI MoM

USD

US CPI MoM was +0.6% for 2026-09, compared with +0.4% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+0.6%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.4%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Core CPI MoM

USD

US Core CPI MoM was +0.3% for 2026-09, compared with +0.3% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+0.3%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.3%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: unchanged
Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

US Consumer Price Index — 2026-09

USD

USD bias is mildly positive using latest-versus-previous official data. Supportive factors: US CPI MoM changed from +0.4% to +0.6%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US CPI MoM+0.6%+0.4%—
US Core CPI MoM+0.3%+0.3%—

What this may mean

USD may lean stronger initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Supporting: US CPI MoM changed from +0.4% to +0.6%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Positive
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Nonfarm Payrolls

USD

Nonfarm payrolls changed by +29K for 2026-09, compared with +133K previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+29K
Forecast
—
Previous
+133K

What this may mean

U.S. labour-market strength can change growth and Federal Reserve expectations across currencies and risk assets.

Key points

  • Market context: lower
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Unemployment Rate

USD

US Unemployment Rate was 4.2% for 2026-09, compared with 4.1% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
4.2%
Forecast
—
Previous
4.1%

What this may mean

U.S. labour-market strength can change growth and Federal Reserve expectations across currencies and risk assets.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

US Employment Situation — 2026-09

USD

USD bias is mildly negative using latest-versus-previous official data. Conflicting factors: US Nonfarm Payrolls changed from +133K to +29K, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. US Unemployment Rate changed from 4.1% to 4.2%, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US Nonfarm Payrolls+29K+133K—
US Unemployment Rate4.2%4.1%—

What this may mean

USD may lean weaker initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Conflicting: US Nonfarm Payrolls changed from +133K to +29K, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
  • Conflicting: US Unemployment Rate changed from 4.1% to 4.2%, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Negative
Link to this update
Economic calendarMedium impact

US JOLTS Job Openings

USD

Job openings were 7.079M for 2026-08, compared with 7.335M previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
7.079M
Forecast
—
Previous
7.335M

What this may mean

Job openings provide a timely signal of labour demand and can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: lower
Link to this update
Market analysisMedium impact

US Job Openings and Labor Turnover — 2026-08

USD

USD bias is mildly negative using latest-versus-previous official data. Conflicting factors: US JOLTS Job Openings changed from 7.335M to 7.079M, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US JOLTS Job Openings7.079M7.335M—

What this may mean

USD may lean weaker initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Conflicting: US JOLTS Job Openings changed from 7.335M to 7.079M, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Negative
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US CPI MoM

USD

US CPI MoM was +0.4% for 2026-08, compared with +0.1% previously.

Event time Released
Read the detailsClose details
Actual
+0.4%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.1%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Core CPI MoM

USD

US Core CPI MoM was +0.3% for 2026-08, compared with +0.2% previously.

Event time Released
Read the detailsClose details
Actual
+0.3%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.2%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update

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