FORECAST • MARKET CONTEXT

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Market analysisHigh impact

What are the main events for today?

USDCAD

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the Swiss CPI report. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.2% vs 1.0% prior, while the Core Y/Y measure is seen unchanged at 0.5%.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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News briefingMedium impact

US-Iran deal still out of reach despite fresh diplomatic hopes ahead of US midterms

USD

And round and round we go. We started the week with renewed optimism that the US and Iran might finally be inching towards a diplomatic breakthrough.

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What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

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Market analysisMedium impact

US-Iran deal still out of reach despite fresh diplomatic hopes ahead of US midterms

USD

And round and round we go. We started the week with renewed optimism that the US and Iran might finally be inching towards a diplomatic breakthrough.

Read the detailsClose details

What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Asia-Pacific market news: RBA hikes to 18-year high

USDJPYAUDCNY

Apple and Palantir beat earnings. Why did both stocks fall?

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

Asia-Pacific market news: RBA hikes to 18-year high

USDJPYAUDCNY

Apple and Palantir beat earnings. Why did both stocks fall?

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

Dollar slips slightly ahead of U.S. midterm elections; euro gains while yen eases

USDEURJPY

Dollar slips slightly ahead of U.S. midterm elections; euro gains while yen eases

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The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisLow impact

Dollar slips slightly ahead of U.S. midterm elections; euro gains while yen eases

USDEURJPY

Dollar slips slightly ahead of U.S. midterm elections; euro gains while yen eases

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Americas FX news wrap 2 Nov: It’s a wrap: AI selling overwhelms oil’s plunge

USDAUDCADCHF

Economic and event calendar in Asia 03 November 2026 - RBA rate hike expected Apple and Palantir earnings preview: The numbers buyers and sellers will be watching Iran and US reportedly on verge of preliminary agreement Gold Technicals: Gold is up sharply erasing some of last week's declines. Bounces off key MA target.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

Americas FX news wrap 2 Nov: It’s a wrap: AI selling overwhelms oil’s plunge

USDAUDCADCHF

Economic and event calendar in Asia 03 November 2026 - RBA rate hike expected Apple and Palantir earnings preview: The numbers buyers and sellers will be watching Iran and US reportedly on verge of preliminary agreement Gold Technicals: Gold is up sharply erasing some of last week's declines. Bounces off key MA target.

Read the detailsClose details

What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Potentially supportive
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Iran and US reportedly on verge of preliminary agreement

USD

Tehran and Washington are reportedly nearing a preliminary agreement, according to ILNA Telegram citing Al-Sharara news agency: Al-Sharara news agency reported, citing a diplomatic source aware of the intensive diplomatic moves between Tehran and Washington to reach a preliminary agreement aimed at reducing tensions, and announced that the coming hours will be decisive in de...

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What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

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Market analysisHigh impact

Iran and US reportedly on verge of preliminary agreement

USD

Tehran and Washington are reportedly nearing a preliminary agreement, according to ILNA Telegram citing Al-Sharara news agency: Al-Sharara news agency reported, citing a diplomatic source aware of the intensive diplomatic moves between Tehran and Washington to reach a preliminary agreement aimed at reducing tensions, and announced that the coming hours will be decisive in de...

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What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

Canadian dollar slips from six-week high as oil retreat offsets weaker U.S. dollar

USDCAD

Canadian dollar slips from six-week high as oil retreat offsets weaker U.S. dollar

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What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

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Market analysisLow impact

Canadian dollar slips from six-week high as oil retreat offsets weaker U.S. dollar

USDCAD

Canadian dollar slips from six-week high as oil retreat offsets weaker U.S. dollar

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What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingMedium impact

US construction spending for the month of September -1.9% versus 0.3% estimate

USD

Prior month +0.9% revised to +2.0%. Details from the Census Department Total construction spending: −1.9% MoM, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,186.1 billion, versus August’s revised $2,227.4 billion.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisMedium impact

US construction spending for the month of September -1.9% versus 0.3% estimate

USD

Prior month +0.9% revised to +2.0%. Details from the Census Department Total construction spending: −1.9% MoM, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,186.1 billion, versus August’s revised $2,227.4 billion.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

US ISM manufacturing PMI for October 55.5 versus 54.5 estimate

USD

Prior month 54.5 Details of the report. Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 vs 54.5 expected.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

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Market analysisHigh impact

US ISM manufacturing PMI for October 55.5 versus 54.5 estimate

USD

Prior month 54.5 Details of the report. Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 vs 54.5 expected.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

US S&P Global final manufacturing PMI for October 54.9 vs 56.0 preliminary

USD

Preliminary 56.0 Prior month 55.9 Details for October 2026 from the S&P Global: Manufacturing PMI: 54.9. Prior 55.9, a 52-month high.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

US S&P Global final manufacturing PMI for October 54.9 vs 56.0 preliminary

USD

Preliminary 56.0 Prior month 55.9 Details for October 2026 from the S&P Global: Manufacturing PMI: 54.9. Prior 55.9, a 52-month high.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Canada S&P global manufacturing PMI 49.6 versus 51.5 last month

USDCAD

Prior month 51.5 Details: Manufacturing PMI: 49.6. First reading below 50 in 2026 and lowest since December 2025.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

Canada S&P global manufacturing PMI 49.6 versus 51.5 last month

USDCAD

Prior month 51.5 Details: Manufacturing PMI: 49.6. First reading below 50 in 2026 and lowest since December 2025.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

US election: The key races that could tip control of Congress

USD

Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats gain the ability to slow President Donald Trump’s agenda during the final two years of his term (and cause other headaches for President Trump).

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisLow impact

US election: The key races that could tip control of Congress

USD

Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats gain the ability to slow President Donald Trump’s agenda during the final two years of his term (and cause other headaches for President Trump).

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Iran’s Pezeshkian says Supreme Leader has granted government some authority on dialogue

USD

Iranian President Pezeshkian commented on dialogue and the war, according to ISNA: War will not be in anyone’s interest, and the enemies will not be able to force us to surrender through it. The Supreme Leader has granted the government some authority on dialogue.

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What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

Link to this update

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