FORECAST • MARKET CONTEXT

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News briefingHigh impact

US GDP Advance for the 3rd quarter 3.4% vs 3.2% estimate

USD

Prior quarter 2,2% The details GDP: 3.4% vs 3.2% expected. Prior revised to 2.2% from 1.5%.

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Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

US GDP Advance for the 3rd quarter 3.4% vs 3.2% estimate

USD

Prior quarter 2,2% The details GDP: 3.4% vs 3.2% expected. Prior revised to 2.2% from 1.5%.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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News briefingLow impact

US initial jobless claims 194K vs 199K expected

USD

Prior 194K (revised to 195K) Continuing claims 1701K vs 1720K expected Prior 1728K (revised to 1722K) US initial jobless claims came in at 194K versus 199K expected, while continuing claims fell to 1.701 million against expectations of 1.720 million. The previous readings were revised to 195K and 1.722 million, respectively.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisLow impact

US initial jobless claims 194K vs 199K expected

USD

Prior 194K (revised to 195K) Continuing claims 1701K vs 1720K expected Prior 1728K (revised to 1722K) US initial jobless claims came in at 194K versus 199K expected, while continuing claims fell to 1.701 million against expectations of 1.720 million. The previous readings were revised to 195K and 1.722 million, respectively.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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News briefingHigh impact

European session wrap: Stocks diverge as markets brace for US inflation, ECB and Amazon earnings

USDEURAUDCAD

Headlines: US futures tumble as Alphabet earnings revive AI spending fears, Amazon is next in the firing line ECB president Lagarde set to step down from her position next February Crude oil remains capped by renewed US-Iran deal hopes, but upside risks persist Trump administration in ongoing talks for a temporary peace deal with Iran - Semafor Gold whipsaws on FOMC decision...

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

European session wrap: Stocks diverge as markets brace for US inflation, ECB and Amazon earnings

USDEURAUDCAD

Headlines: US futures tumble as Alphabet earnings revive AI spending fears, Amazon is next in the firing line ECB president Lagarde set to step down from her position next February Crude oil remains capped by renewed US-Iran deal hopes, but upside risks persist Trump administration in ongoing talks for a temporary peace deal with Iran - Semafor Gold whipsaws on FOMC decision...

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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News briefingMedium impact

Trump administration in ongoing talks for a temporary peace deal with Iran - Semafor

USD

According to Semafor , the Trump administration is involved in discussions aimed at securing a temporary peace deal. Vice President JD Vance has reportedly sent a letter to Tehran in an effort to revive negotiations, although Trump downplayed the initiative and framed it around humanitarian needs.

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What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

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Market analysisMedium impact

Trump administration in ongoing talks for a temporary peace deal with Iran - Semafor

USD

According to Semafor , the Trump administration is involved in discussions aimed at securing a temporary peace deal. Vice President JD Vance has reportedly sent a letter to Tehran in an effort to revive negotiations, although Trump downplayed the initiative and framed it around humanitarian needs.

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What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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News briefingHigh impact

What are the main events for today?

USDEUR

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the ECB rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while maintaining its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

What are the main events for today?

USDEUR

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the ECB rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while maintaining its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

Economic data spotlight: Fed rate hike bets survived Warsh, but can they survive US PCE inflation?

USD

Fed chair Warsh talked and markets listened. But by the end of it all, everyone pretty much went home with the same hand that they were dealt with in looking to the next meeting in December.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisLow impact

Economic data spotlight: Fed rate hike bets survived Warsh, but can they survive US PCE inflation?

USD

Fed chair Warsh talked and markets listened. But by the end of it all, everyone pretty much went home with the same hand that they were dealt with in looking to the next meeting in December.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Potentially supportive
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News briefingHigh impact

Asia-Pacific market news: Oil eases on Vance’s Iran outreach

USDAUDNZDCNY

RBA set for fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% as banks flag risk of another move in February More on Samsung: shares slide up to 6.6% as shareholder-return plan is delayed to January US government builds $30bn stock portfolio across 43 deals in chips, minerals and quantum Alphabet slides over 9% after hours as search miss and $9bn cash burn overshadow Cloud Samsung Q3 operating profi...

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

Asia-Pacific market news: Oil eases on Vance’s Iran outreach

USDAUDNZDCNY

RBA set for fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% as banks flag risk of another move in February More on Samsung: shares slide up to 6.6% as shareholder-return plan is delayed to January US government builds $30bn stock portfolio across 43 deals in chips, minerals and quantum Alphabet slides over 9% after hours as search miss and $9bn cash burn overshadow Cloud Samsung Q3 operating profi...

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

Canadian dollar holds gains after Bank of Canada delivers rate hike

USDCAD

Canadian dollar holds gains after Bank of Canada delivers rate hike

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The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisLow impact

Canadian dollar holds gains after Bank of Canada delivers rate hike

USDCAD

Canadian dollar holds gains after Bank of Canada delivers rate hike

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Potentially supportive
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News briefingHigh impact

Americas FX news wrap 28 Oct: Fed holds rates, yield curve steepens as Big Tech earnings diverge

USDGBPAUDCADNZD

Vance writes to Iran hard-liner Rezaei to revive talks as Trump weighs new strikes Alphabet Q3: Google Cloud revenue jumps 103% but search and ad sales miss forecasts Microsoft Q1 beats as Azure grows 48% and capex lands $6bn below forecast The before and after. A look at the changes in forex, rates, stocks through the FOMC decision and press conference.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

Americas FX news wrap 28 Oct: Fed holds rates, yield curve steepens as Big Tech earnings diverge

USDGBPAUDCADNZD

Vance writes to Iran hard-liner Rezaei to revive talks as Trump weighs new strikes Alphabet Q3: Google Cloud revenue jumps 103% but search and ad sales miss forecasts Microsoft Q1 beats as Azure grows 48% and capex lands $6bn below forecast The before and after. A look at the changes in forex, rates, stocks through the FOMC decision and press conference.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, October 29, 2026

USD

Lower tier data only on the agenda for the session ahead. There are much-awiated earnings releases after the US RTH close, MSFT and Alphabet.

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisLow impact

Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, October 29, 2026

USD

Lower tier data only on the agenda for the session ahead. There are much-awiated earnings releases after the US RTH close, MSFT and Alphabet.

Read the detailsClose details

What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Qatar trying to convince Iran to allow UN nuclear inspectors - report

USD

Axios' Barak Ravid is out with a new report: Mediators led by Qatar are trying to restart negotiations after the midterms Qataris working to convince Iran to allow nuclear inspectors in return for some sanctions relief Trump says "we need to finish the jobs through a deal or another way" The report says "A renewed bombing offensive appears likely shortly after the midterms w...

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What this may mean

Geopolitical developments can cause rapid moves in safe-haven assets, energy prices, currencies and global risk sentiment.

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Market analysisHigh impact

Qatar trying to convince Iran to allow UN nuclear inspectors - report

USD

Axios' Barak Ravid is out with a new report: Mediators led by Qatar are trying to restart negotiations after the midterms Qataris working to convince Iran to allow nuclear inspectors in return for some sanctions relief Trump says "we need to finish the jobs through a deal or another way" The report says "A renewed bombing offensive appears likely shortly after the midterms w...

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What this may mean

Geopolitical developments can cause rapid moves in safe-haven assets, energy prices, currencies and global risk sentiment.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Iran's Araghchi: Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed

USD

Post from Iran's foreign minister on twitter: While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our 7-Day Plan in even less than a week.

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What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

Iran's Araghchi: Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed

USD

Post from Iran's foreign minister on twitter: While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our 7-Day Plan in even less than a week.

Read the detailsClose details

What this may mean

Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update

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