FORECAST • MARKET CONTEXT

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News briefingMedium impact

US October Richmond Fed -2 vs -2 expected

USD

Manufacturing shipments 0 vs -5 last month Other details: Employment 3 versus 7 last month Wages 20 versus 17 last month Prices paid 7.12 versus 7.08 last month Prices received 5.27 versus 4.19 last month New orders -8 versus -6 last month Backlog of orders -21 versus -10 last month Capacity utilization -7 versus -7 last month Capital expenditures -12 versus -7 last month Se...

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisMedium impact

US October Richmond Fed -2 vs -2 expected

USD

Manufacturing shipments 0 vs -5 last month Other details: Employment 3 versus 7 last month Wages 20 versus 17 last month Prices paid 7.12 versus 7.08 last month Prices received 5.27 versus 4.19 last month New orders -8 versus -6 last month Backlog of orders -21 versus -10 last month Capacity utilization -7 versus -7 last month Capital expenditures -12 versus -7 last month Se...

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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News briefingHigh impact

October US consumer confidence 91.7 vs 81.0 expected

USD

Prior was 81.9 (revised to 84.2) Present situation 120.4 vs 111.8 prior Expectations 72.6 vs 65.7 prior This is a nice jump but it comes after the worst reading since 2014 so it's still at extremely depressed levels. In any case, I struggle to see the value of this indicator as anything but a political barometer.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

October US consumer confidence 91.7 vs 81.0 expected

USD

Prior was 81.9 (revised to 84.2) Present situation 120.4 vs 111.8 prior Expectations 72.6 vs 65.7 prior This is a nice jump but it comes after the worst reading since 2014 so it's still at extremely depressed levels. In any case, I struggle to see the value of this indicator as anything but a political barometer.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingMedium impact

US New home sales for September 0.676M annualized vs 0.650M estimate

USD

Prior month 0.684M annualized revised lower to 0.680M annualized Details: New home sales: 676,000 annualized. Sales change: −0.6% MoM; −5.3% YoY.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisMedium impact

US New home sales for September 0.676M annualized vs 0.650M estimate

USD

Prior month 0.684M annualized revised lower to 0.680M annualized Details: New home sales: 676,000 annualized. Sales change: −0.6% MoM; −5.3% YoY.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingMedium impact

US August Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected

USD

Prior was +2.5% y/y 20-city house price index +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Mortgage rates at 7.5% aren't doing any favors for the housing market. For background, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the best-known measure of US house prices.

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisMedium impact

US August Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected

USD

Prior was +2.5% y/y 20-city house price index +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Mortgage rates at 7.5% aren't doing any favors for the housing market. For background, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the best-known measure of US house prices.

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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News briefingHigh impact

US FHFA Monthly home prices index 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate

USD

Prior month 0.3% Details of the report US August FHFA house prices rise 0.3% as expected; annual growth slows to 2.4% House prices MoM: +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +0.2% from +0.3%.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

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Market analysisHigh impact

US FHFA Monthly home prices index 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate

USD

Prior month 0.3% Details of the report US August FHFA house prices rise 0.3% as expected; annual growth slows to 2.4% House prices MoM: +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +0.2% from +0.3%.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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News briefingHigh impact

Canadian dollar slips as investors await Bank of Canada, Fed rate decisions

USDCAD

Canadian dollar slips as investors await Bank of Canada, Fed rate decisions

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

Canadian dollar slips as investors await Bank of Canada, Fed rate decisions

USDCAD

Canadian dollar slips as investors await Bank of Canada, Fed rate decisions

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

US September durable goods orders +1.8% vs +1.7% expected

USD

Prior was 0.0% Ex-transport +0.5% vs +0.6% expected Prior ex-transport +0.3% Ex-defense +2.2% vs +0.1% prior Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Prior +1.6% Durable goods orders have been chopping sideways for much of the past year and today's report is more of the same. it's a nice climb but it comes after months of stagnation.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

US September durable goods orders +1.8% vs +1.7% expected

USD

Prior was 0.0% Ex-transport +0.5% vs +0.6% expected Prior ex-transport +0.3% Ex-defense +2.2% vs +0.1% prior Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Prior +1.6% Durable goods orders have been chopping sideways for much of the past year and today's report is more of the same. it's a nice climb but it comes after months of stagnation.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-week lows ahead of Fed decision

USD

U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-week lows ahead of Fed decision

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisLow impact

U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-week lows ahead of Fed decision

USD

U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-week lows ahead of Fed decision

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

European news wrap: Markets remain rangebound ahead of the FOMC decision

USDEURGBPJPYNZDCNY

Headlines: FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening Why the Federal Reserve matters more to crypto market than many investors realise Oil consolidates around recent highs as fears of imminent US strikes ease.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

European news wrap: Markets remain rangebound ahead of the FOMC decision

USDEURGBPJPYNZDCNY

Headlines: FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening Why the Federal Reserve matters more to crypto market than many investors realise Oil consolidates around recent highs as fears of imminent US strikes ease.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Potentially supportive
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News briefingLow impact

Sterling today: Pound dips on firm dollar as Fed, budget loom

USDGBP

Sterling today: Pound dips on firm dollar as Fed, budget loom

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisLow impact

Sterling today: Pound dips on firm dollar as Fed, budget loom

USDGBP

Sterling today: Pound dips on firm dollar as Fed, budget loom

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

France consumer confidence plunges to lowest since 2013 as fiscal worries deepen

EUR

France October consumer confidence 80 vs 85 expected Prior 86; revised to 85 That's a major blow. French household confidence falls to its lowest since 2013 in October as fiscal worries and concerns over the country's public finances weigh heavily on sentiment.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

France consumer confidence plunges to lowest since 2013 as fiscal worries deepen

EUR

France October consumer confidence 80 vs 85 expected Prior 86; revised to 85 That's a major blow. French household confidence falls to its lowest since 2013 in October as fiscal worries and concerns over the country's public finances weigh heavily on sentiment.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

What are the main events for today?

USD

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the French consumer confidence and the Spanish unemployment rate. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

What are the main events for today?

USD

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the French consumer confidence and the Spanish unemployment rate. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted.

Read the detailsClose details

What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update

A useful briefing starts a decision; it does not guarantee an outcome. Check current prices and your risk plan.