FORECAST • MARKET CONTEXT

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Market analysisHigh impact

European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom

USDGBPAUDCADNZDCNY

Headlines: Crude oil remains under pressure amid US-Iran deal hopes; setbacks could push prices to new highs Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week Gold rebounds on renewed hopes for US-Iran deal as focus shifts to FOMC decision Wall Street faces a double test as Fed decision and Microsoft, Alphabet earnings loom...

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023

Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisLow impact

Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023

Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingMedium impact

Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance

GBP

UK chancellor Healey has a rather unenviable task at hand today. He is expected to deliver a budget that keeps households happy, businesses afloat, and bond investors calm.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

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Market analysisMedium impact

Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance

GBP

UK chancellor Healey has a rather unenviable task at hand today. He is expected to deliver a budget that keeps households happy, businesses afloat, and bond investors calm.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week

USD

According to an official briefed on the US-Iran negotiations, Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft proposal on Sunday. Iran is considering the proposal, with a response expected by the end of the week.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

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Market analysisHigh impact

Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week

USD

According to an official briefed on the US-Iran negotiations, Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft proposal on Sunday. Iran is considering the proposal, with a response expected by the end of the week.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

Germany's trade struggles with China set to put Asia-Pacific deficit on course for record high

CNY

For quite some time now, Germany's export struggles are hardly anything new. A lot of that comes down to push to diversify away from China in recent times but Beijing's own ambitions to become more self-sufficient haven't exactly helped matters either.

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisLow impact

Germany's trade struggles with China set to put Asia-Pacific deficit on course for record high

CNY

For quite some time now, Germany's export struggles are hardly anything new. A lot of that comes down to push to diversify away from China in recent times but Beijing's own ambitions to become more self-sufficient haven't exactly helped matters either.

Read the detailsClose details

What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

What are the main events for today?

USDGBPCAD

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK Budget announcement at 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET. The UK Chancellor is expected to announce targeted tax increases and cost-of-living support, with markets focused on the OBR’s updated forecasts and the government’s fiscal headroom, estimated at around £15–16bn.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

What are the main events for today?

USDGBPCAD

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK Budget announcement at 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET. The UK Chancellor is expected to announce targeted tax increases and cost-of-living support, with markets focused on the OBR’s updated forecasts and the government’s fiscal headroom, estimated at around £15–16bn.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingMedium impact

Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected

EUR

Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected Prior -30.6 The breakdownDetails to follow... What does the data measure?The GfK consumer climate index measures German households' confidence in their financial prospects and willingness to spend.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisMedium impact

Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected

EUR

Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected Prior -30.6 The breakdownDetails to follow... What does the data measure?The GfK consumer climate index measures German households' confidence in their financial prospects and willingness to spend.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
Economic calendarMedium impact

US PPI Final Demand MoM

USD

US PPI Final Demand MoM was +1.3% for 2026-09, compared with +0.5% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+1.3%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.5%

What this may mean

Producer-price pressure can affect the inflation outlook, interest-rate expectations and the U.S. dollar.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Market analysisMedium impact

US Producer Price Index — 2026-09

USD

USD bias is mildly positive using latest-versus-previous official data. Supportive factors: US PPI Final Demand MoM changed from +0.5% to +1.3%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US PPI Final Demand MoM+1.3%+0.5%—

What this may mean

USD may lean stronger initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Supporting: US PPI Final Demand MoM changed from +0.5% to +1.3%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Positive
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US CPI MoM

USD

US CPI MoM was +0.6% for 2026-09, compared with +0.4% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+0.6%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.4%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Core CPI MoM

USD

US Core CPI MoM was +0.3% for 2026-09, compared with +0.3% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+0.3%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.3%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: unchanged
Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

US Consumer Price Index — 2026-09

USD

USD bias is mildly positive using latest-versus-previous official data. Supportive factors: US CPI MoM changed from +0.4% to +0.6%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US CPI MoM+0.6%+0.4%—
US Core CPI MoM+0.3%+0.3%—

What this may mean

USD may lean stronger initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Supporting: US CPI MoM changed from +0.4% to +0.6%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Positive
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Nonfarm Payrolls

USD

Nonfarm payrolls changed by +29K for 2026-09, compared with +133K previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+29K
Forecast
—
Previous
+133K

What this may mean

U.S. labour-market strength can change growth and Federal Reserve expectations across currencies and risk assets.

Key points

  • Market context: lower
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Unemployment Rate

USD

US Unemployment Rate was 4.2% for 2026-09, compared with 4.1% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
4.2%
Forecast
—
Previous
4.1%

What this may mean

U.S. labour-market strength can change growth and Federal Reserve expectations across currencies and risk assets.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

US Employment Situation — 2026-09

USD

USD bias is mildly negative using latest-versus-previous official data. Conflicting factors: US Nonfarm Payrolls changed from +133K to +29K, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. US Unemployment Rate changed from 4.1% to 4.2%, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US Nonfarm Payrolls+29K+133K—
US Unemployment Rate4.2%4.1%—

What this may mean

USD may lean weaker initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Conflicting: US Nonfarm Payrolls changed from +133K to +29K, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
  • Conflicting: US Unemployment Rate changed from 4.1% to 4.2%, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Negative
Link to this update
Economic calendarMedium impact

US JOLTS Job Openings

USD

Job openings were 7.190M for 2026-08, compared with 7.335M previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
7.190M
Forecast
—
Previous
7.335M

What this may mean

Job openings provide a timely signal of labour demand and can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: lower
Link to this update
Market analysisMedium impact

US Job Openings and Labor Turnover — 2026-08

USD

USD bias is mildly negative using latest-versus-previous official data. Conflicting factors: US JOLTS Job Openings changed from 7.335M to 7.190M, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US JOLTS Job Openings7.190M7.335M—

What this may mean

USD may lean weaker initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Conflicting: US JOLTS Job Openings changed from 7.335M to 7.190M, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Negative
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US CPI MoM

USD

US CPI MoM was +0.4% for 2026-08, compared with +0.1% previously.

Event time Released
Read the detailsClose details
Actual
+0.4%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.1%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update

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