Your market briefing

Canadian dollar slips as investors await Bank of Canada, Fed rate decisions

Prior was 0.0% Ex-transport +0.5% vs +0.6% expected Prior ex-transport +0.3% Ex-defense +2.2% vs +0.1% prior Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Prior +1.6% Durable goods orders have been chopping sideways for much of the past year and today's report is more of the same. it's a nice climb but it comes after months of stagnation.

U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-week lows ahead of Fed decision

Headlines: FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening Why the Federal Reserve matters more to crypto market than many investors realise Oil consolidates around recent highs as fears of imminent US strikes ease.

Sterling today: Pound dips on firm dollar as Fed, budget loom

France October consumer confidence 80 vs 85 expected Prior 86; revised to 85 That's a major blow. French household confidence falls to its lowest since 2013 in October as fiscal worries and concerns over the country's public finances weigh heavily on sentiment.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the French consumer confidence and the Spanish unemployment rate. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted.

There is a bit of a welcome relief in global bonds to start the new week, particularly in Europe after Moody's affirmed France's Aa3 credit rating. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have also settled down a fair bit after an extremely volatile period earlier this month.

European traders will be greeted with a rather bare economic calendar when they get to their desks today, and I reckon that might suit some market players just fine considering what is on the agenda later this week. In terms of data releases, we only have French consumer confidence for October and the ECB's survey on euro area lending for September.

Asia firms into Tokyo lunch: Japan and Korea stocks rise, AUD and NZD gain after Nasdaq lead Ethereum Foundation “dump” is a $6.4m treasury sale, not a crisis South Korea Q3 GDP grows 1.0%, beating forecasts as AI chip boom lifts exports China September industrial profits jump 14.4% y/y, rebounding from 4.2% in August Japan services PPI picks up to 3.7% as August revised low...

The rebound offers a modest positive surprise for Chinese assets at a time when sentiment is fragile, with onshore equities in a bear market and Morgan Stanley warning of further downside in offshore shares. Industrial and materials stocks are the most direct beneficiaries, and the data may slightly ease concerns about a sharp earnings slowdown.

An in-line print is unlikely to move the yen much on its own, but it removes one possible dovish surprise before Friday’s decision and keeps the backdrop supportive of December hike pricing.