FORECAST • MARKET CONTEXT

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The events, headlines and analysis that matter — organised into a briefing you can actually use.

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News briefingMedium impact

US August Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected

USD

Prior was +2.5% y/y 20-city house price index +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Mortgage rates at 7.5% aren't doing any favors for the housing market. For background, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the best-known measure of US house prices.

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

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Market analysisMedium impact

US August Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected

USD

Prior was +2.5% y/y 20-city house price index +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Mortgage rates at 7.5% aren't doing any favors for the housing market. For background, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the best-known measure of US house prices.

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What this may mean

The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

US FHFA Monthly home prices index 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate

USD

Prior month 0.3% Details of the report US August FHFA house prices rise 0.3% as expected; annual growth slows to 2.4% House prices MoM: +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +0.2% from +0.3%.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

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Market analysisHigh impact

US FHFA Monthly home prices index 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate

USD

Prior month 0.3% Details of the report US August FHFA house prices rise 0.3% as expected; annual growth slows to 2.4% House prices MoM: +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +0.2% from +0.3%.

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What this may mean

Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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News briefingHigh impact

Canadian dollar slips as investors await Bank of Canada, Fed rate decisions

USDCAD

Canadian dollar slips as investors await Bank of Canada, Fed rate decisions

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

Canadian dollar slips as investors await Bank of Canada, Fed rate decisions

USDCAD

Canadian dollar slips as investors await Bank of Canada, Fed rate decisions

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

US September durable goods orders +1.8% vs +1.7% expected

USD

Prior was 0.0% Ex-transport +0.5% vs +0.6% expected Prior ex-transport +0.3% Ex-defense +2.2% vs +0.1% prior Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Prior +1.6% Durable goods orders have been chopping sideways for much of the past year and today's report is more of the same. it's a nice climb but it comes after months of stagnation.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisHigh impact

US September durable goods orders +1.8% vs +1.7% expected

USD

Prior was 0.0% Ex-transport +0.5% vs +0.6% expected Prior ex-transport +0.3% Ex-defense +2.2% vs +0.1% prior Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.7% expected Prior +1.6% Durable goods orders have been chopping sideways for much of the past year and today's report is more of the same. it's a nice climb but it comes after months of stagnation.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingLow impact

U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-week lows ahead of Fed decision

USD

U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-week lows ahead of Fed decision

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

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Market analysisLow impact

U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-week lows ahead of Fed decision

USD

U.S. Treasury yields hover near multi-week lows ahead of Fed decision

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Link to this update
News briefingHigh impact

European news wrap: Markets remain rangebound ahead of the FOMC decision

USDEURGBPJPYNZDCNY

Headlines: FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening Why the Federal Reserve matters more to crypto market than many investors realise Oil consolidates around recent highs as fears of imminent US strikes ease.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

European news wrap: Markets remain rangebound ahead of the FOMC decision

USDEURGBPJPYNZDCNY

Headlines: FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening Why the Federal Reserve matters more to crypto market than many investors realise Oil consolidates around recent highs as fears of imminent US strikes ease.

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What this may mean

Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.

Key points

  • Market context: Potentially supportive
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Economic calendarMedium impact

US PPI Final Demand MoM

USD

US PPI Final Demand MoM was +1.3% for 2026-09, compared with +0.5% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+1.3%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.5%

What this may mean

Producer-price pressure can affect the inflation outlook, interest-rate expectations and the U.S. dollar.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Market analysisMedium impact

US Producer Price Index — 2026-09

USD

USD bias is mildly positive using latest-versus-previous official data. Supportive factors: US PPI Final Demand MoM changed from +0.5% to +1.3%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US PPI Final Demand MoM+1.3%+0.5%—

What this may mean

USD may lean stronger initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Supporting: US PPI Final Demand MoM changed from +0.5% to +1.3%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Positive
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Economic calendarHigh impact

US CPI MoM

USD

US CPI MoM was +0.6% for 2026-09, compared with +0.4% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+0.6%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.4%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Core CPI MoM

USD

US Core CPI MoM was +0.3% for 2026-09, compared with +0.3% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+0.3%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.3%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: unchanged
Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

US Consumer Price Index — 2026-09

USD

USD bias is mildly positive using latest-versus-previous official data. Supportive factors: US CPI MoM changed from +0.4% to +0.6%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US CPI MoM+0.6%+0.4%—
US Core CPI MoM+0.3%+0.3%—

What this may mean

USD may lean stronger initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Supporting: US CPI MoM changed from +0.4% to +0.6%, a USD-supportive previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Positive
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Nonfarm Payrolls

USD

Nonfarm payrolls changed by +29K for 2026-09, compared with +133K previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+29K
Forecast
—
Previous
+133K

What this may mean

U.S. labour-market strength can change growth and Federal Reserve expectations across currencies and risk assets.

Key points

  • Market context: lower
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Unemployment Rate

USD

US Unemployment Rate was 4.2% for 2026-09, compared with 4.1% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
4.2%
Forecast
—
Previous
4.1%

What this may mean

U.S. labour-market strength can change growth and Federal Reserve expectations across currencies and risk assets.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Market analysisHigh impact

US Employment Situation — 2026-09

USD

USD bias is mildly negative using latest-versus-previous official data. Conflicting factors: US Nonfarm Payrolls changed from +133K to +29K, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. US Unemployment Rate changed from 4.1% to 4.2%, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US Nonfarm Payrolls+29K+133K—
US Unemployment Rate4.2%4.1%—

What this may mean

USD may lean weaker initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Conflicting: US Nonfarm Payrolls changed from +133K to +29K, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
  • Conflicting: US Unemployment Rate changed from 4.1% to 4.2%, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Negative
Link to this update
Economic calendarMedium impact

US JOLTS Job Openings

USD

Job openings were 7.079M for 2026-08, compared with 7.335M previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
7.079M
Forecast
—
Previous
7.335M

What this may mean

Job openings provide a timely signal of labour demand and can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Key points

  • Market context: lower
Link to this update
Market analysisMedium impact

US Job Openings and Labor Turnover — 2026-08

USD

USD bias is mildly negative using latest-versus-previous official data. Conflicting factors: US JOLTS Job Openings changed from 7.335M to 7.079M, a USD-negative previous-release comparison. Consensus forecasts are unavailable, so this is not an actual-versus-forecast beat/miss assessment.

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The numbers behind the update

Indicator names follow the English release. Read the summary above for the explanation.

IndicatorActualPreviousUnit
US JOLTS Job Openings7.079M7.335M—

What this may mean

USD may lean weaker initially, but mixed components can limit follow-through.

Key points

  • Conflicting: US JOLTS Job Openings changed from 7.335M to 7.079M, a USD-negative previous-release comparison.
  • Market context: Mildly Negative
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US CPI MoM

USD

US CPI MoM was +0.4% for 2026-08, compared with +0.1% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+0.4%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.1%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update
Economic calendarHigh impact

US Core CPI MoM

USD

US Core CPI MoM was +0.3% for 2026-08, compared with +0.2% previously.

Event time Released
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Actual
+0.3%
Forecast
—
Previous
+0.2%

What this may mean

U.S. inflation can change Federal Reserve rate expectations and move the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and equities.

Key points

  • Market context: higher
Link to this update

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