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Qatar trying to convince Iran to allow UN nuclear inspectors - report
USD
Axios' Barak Ravid is out with a new report: Mediators led by Qatar are trying to restart negotiations after the midterms Qataris working to convince Iran to allow nuclear inspectors in return for some sanctions relief Trump says "we need to finish the jobs through a deal or another way" The report says "A renewed bombing offensive appears likely shortly after the midterms w...
Qatar trying to convince Iran to allow UN nuclear inspectors - report
What this may mean
Geopolitical developments can cause rapid moves in safe-haven assets, energy prices, currencies and global risk sentiment.
Qatar trying to convince Iran to allow UN nuclear inspectors - report
USD
Axios' Barak Ravid is out with a new report: Mediators led by Qatar are trying to restart negotiations after the midterms Qataris working to convince Iran to allow nuclear inspectors in return for some sanctions relief Trump says "we need to finish the jobs through a deal or another way" The report says "A renewed bombing offensive appears likely shortly after the midterms w...
Qatar trying to convince Iran to allow UN nuclear inspectors - report
What this may mean
Geopolitical developments can cause rapid moves in safe-haven assets, energy prices, currencies and global risk sentiment.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Iran's Araghchi: Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed
USD
Post from Iran's foreign minister on twitter: While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our 7-Day Plan in even less than a week.
Iran's Araghchi: Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed
What this may mean
Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.
Iran's Araghchi: Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed
USD
Post from Iran's foreign minister on twitter: While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our 7-Day Plan in even less than a week.
Iran's Araghchi: Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed
What this may mean
Energy-market changes can affect inflation expectations, commodity currencies, transport costs and broader risk sentiment.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Sterling steadies, gilts tick up following Healey’s UK Budget
GBP
Sterling steadies, gilts tick up following Healey’s UK Budget
Sterling steadies, gilts tick up following Healey’s UK Budget
What this may mean
The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.
Sterling steadies, gilts tick up following Healey’s UK Budget
GBP
Sterling steadies, gilts tick up following Healey’s UK Budget
Sterling steadies, gilts tick up following Healey’s UK Budget
What this may mean
The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
UK budget: Growth forecasts cut as Healey unveils £15 billion fiscal buffer
GBP
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) lowered its near-term growth forecasts but the government still expects to meet its fiscal rules, with £15 billion of headroom at the end of the forecast period.
UK budget: Growth forecasts cut as Healey unveils £15 billion fiscal buffer
What this may mean
Growth data can reshape recession, earnings and policy expectations across currencies and risk assets.
UK budget: Growth forecasts cut as Healey unveils £15 billion fiscal buffer
GBP
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) lowered its near-term growth forecasts but the government still expects to meet its fiscal rules, with £15 billion of headroom at the end of the forecast period.
UK budget: Growth forecasts cut as Healey unveils £15 billion fiscal buffer
What this may mean
Growth data can reshape recession, earnings and policy expectations across currencies and risk assets.
Key points
- Market context: Potentially negative
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
USD
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
USD
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
Treasury yields nudge toward one-week highs; Fed decision, Big Tech earnings loom
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
US Wholesale inventories 0.6% vs 0.5% estimate
USD
Wholesale inventories: +0.6% MoM. Retail inventories: +0.3% MoM.
US Wholesale inventories 0.6% vs 0.5% estimate
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
US Wholesale inventories 0.6% vs 0.5% estimate
USD
Wholesale inventories: +0.6% MoM. Retail inventories: +0.3% MoM.
US Wholesale inventories 0.6% vs 0.5% estimate
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
US September advance goods trade balance -134.9 billion vs -130.2 billion expected
USD
Prior was -132.6 These are the two worst back-to-back months since just before Liberation Day, when goods were flooding into the US to try to front-run Trump's tariffs. Excluding Jan-Mar 2025, it's the worst two-month period ever.
US September advance goods trade balance -134.9 billion vs -130.2 billion expected
What this may mean
Growth data can reshape recession, earnings and policy expectations across currencies and risk assets.
US September advance goods trade balance -134.9 billion vs -130.2 billion expected
USD
Prior was -132.6 These are the two worst back-to-back months since just before Liberation Day, when goods were flooding into the US to try to front-run Trump's tariffs. Excluding Jan-Mar 2025, it's the worst two-month period ever.
US September advance goods trade balance -134.9 billion vs -130.2 billion expected
What this may mean
Growth data can reshape recession, earnings and policy expectations across currencies and risk assets.
Key points
- Market context: Potentially negative
European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom
USDGBPAUDCADNZDCNY
Headlines: Crude oil remains under pressure amid US-Iran deal hopes; setbacks could push prices to new highs Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week Gold rebounds on renewed hopes for US-Iran deal as focus shifts to FOMC decision Wall Street faces a double test as Fed decision and Microsoft, Alphabet earnings loom...
European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom
USDGBPAUDCADNZDCNY
Headlines: Crude oil remains under pressure amid US-Iran deal hopes; setbacks could push prices to new highs Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week Gold rebounds on renewed hopes for US-Iran deal as focus shifts to FOMC decision Wall Street faces a double test as Fed decision and Microsoft, Alphabet earnings loom...
European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom
What this may mean
Central-bank guidance can quickly change interest-rate expectations, currency volatility, bond yields and risk appetite.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
What this may mean
The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
Polish zloty falls to weakest level since November 2023
What this may mean
The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance
GBP
UK chancellor Healey has a rather unenviable task at hand today. He is expected to deliver a budget that keeps households happy, businesses afloat, and bond investors calm.
Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance
What this may mean
Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.
Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance
GBP
UK chancellor Healey has a rather unenviable task at hand today. He is expected to deliver a budget that keeps households happy, businesses afloat, and bond investors calm.
Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance
What this may mean
Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week
USD
According to an official briefed on the US-Iran negotiations, Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft proposal on Sunday. Iran is considering the proposal, with a response expected by the end of the week.
Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week
What this may mean
Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.
Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week
USD
According to an official briefed on the US-Iran negotiations, Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft proposal on Sunday. Iran is considering the proposal, with a response expected by the end of the week.
Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week
What this may mean
Inflation developments can change the expected path of interest rates and therefore affect currencies, bonds, equities and gold.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
Germany's trade struggles with China set to put Asia-Pacific deficit on course for record high
CNY
For quite some time now, Germany's export struggles are hardly anything new. A lot of that comes down to push to diversify away from China in recent times but Beijing's own ambitions to become more self-sufficient haven't exactly helped matters either.
Germany's trade struggles with China set to put Asia-Pacific deficit on course for record high
What this may mean
The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.
Germany's trade struggles with China set to put Asia-Pacific deficit on course for record high
CNY
For quite some time now, Germany's export struggles are hardly anything new. A lot of that comes down to push to diversify away from China in recent times but Beijing's own ambitions to become more self-sufficient haven't exactly helped matters either.
Germany's trade struggles with China set to put Asia-Pacific deficit on course for record high
What this may mean
The development may affect the tagged currencies or assets as markets reassess growth, policy or risk expectations.
Key points
- Market context: Mixed / needs confirmation
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