Your market briefing

UK chancellor Healey has a rather unenviable task at hand today. He is expected to deliver a budget that keeps households happy, businesses afloat, and bond investors calm.

According to an official briefed on the US-Iran negotiations, Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft proposal on Sunday. Iran is considering the proposal, with a response expected by the end of the week.

For quite some time now, Germany's export struggles are hardly anything new. A lot of that comes down to push to diversify away from China in recent times but Beijing's own ambitions to become more self-sufficient haven't exactly helped matters either.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK Budget announcement at 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET. The UK Chancellor is expected to announce targeted tax increases and cost-of-living support, with markets focused on the OBR’s updated forecasts and the government’s fiscal headroom, estimated at around £15–16bn.

Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected Prior -30.6 The breakdownDetails to follow... What does the data measure?The GfK consumer climate index measures German households' confidence in their financial prospects and willingness to spend.

Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected Prior -30.6 The breakdownThe latest GfK survey shows that German consumer sentiment is set to slip marginally heading into November, amid growing inflation fears and more subdued income prospects.

It has been quite an eventful start to the day so far as the central bank bonanza rolls into town. That is putting inflation back in the spotlight with there already being plenty to digest before European traders get to their desks and before we even get to the main events later today.

RBNZ’s Breman: more hikes likely at coming meetings, possibly into restrictive territory US warns Gulf allies of possible short, intense Iran campaign after midterms: WSJ Oil edges higher after Houthis claim missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery RBA’s Bullock: Inflation is far too high PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7165 (vs.

Oil is the clearest driver of the headline beat, and Bullock tied higher energy prices directly to a worse inflation outlook only minutes before the release, so any further rise in crude adds to the case for tightening. The bigger signal for markets is the core reading.

Australia CPI, September 2026 / Q3 Quarterly (Q3) CPI q/q: 1.3% vs. 1.3% expected (prior 0.6%) CPI y/y: 3.9% vs.

Dollar hits 2-week high a day ahead of Fed decision, euro slips on French worries

A sharp slowdown in supply growth would ease one source of pressure on bond markets after a heavy 2026, which could help keep corporate spreads tight if demand holds up. AI borrowing stays the main swing factor for supply: with capex expected to top $1.3 trillion, hyperscaler issuance will keep testing investor appetite for technology credit.